Shatrughan Sinha and Ravi Shankar Prasad both are from numerically strong Kayastha community.
One is a known lawyer-politician, the other ruled hearts on the big screen. One is a rookie in the electoral contest, the other a two-time MP. One has strong connections with the party leadership, the other a vocal critic of it.
Meet Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad and known Modi-baiter Shatrughan Sinha, both fighting the prestige battle for Patna Sahib Lok Sabha constituency in Bihar. Sinha, who switched over to the Congress from the saffron camp, is the mahagathbandhan candidate here. Prasad is the NDA pick.
The similarity: Both belong to the numerically significant Kayastha community that had rallied behind the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. And this is precisely why analysts say the going may be tough for Prasad, as votes not only among Kayasthas, but other upper castes too, may split this time.
Patna Sahib constituency, with around 28% upper caste voters, has traditionally been a BJP stronghold. Upper caste voters can swing the results here - a fact that distinguishes it from other Lok Sabha seats in Bihar.
The CVoter opinion poll had earlier said that the BJP may be able to mobilise more upper caste votes this time in comparison to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In 2014, 48% upper caste votes went to BJP, 23% to RJD and 6% to JD(U). The CVoter survey says that the JD(U) effect will work this time, and the NDA candidate may garner around 63% upper caste votes.
It is not clear, however, as to whether it was 'Bihari Babu' Shatrughan Sinha's charisma or the Modi wave that led to upper caste consolidation behind the BJP in the last general elections.
The CVoter opinion poll further predicts that this time, the BJP could consolidate voters from a cross-section of society.
In fact, the RJD-led mahagathbandhan could lose scheduled caste and upper caste voters by 8% and 3%, respectively. Analysts differ.
Though Prasad can rely on the strong BJP organisation in the constituency, a split in upper caste votes, especially Kayasthas, can put pressure on the BJP. Add to it, a third Kayastha leader from Patna city, Rajya Sabha MP RK Sinha, may disturb caste calculations.
RK Sinha has for long eyed the seat either for himself or his son. His supporters reportedly waved black flags at Prasad on his first visit to Patna after being named the BJP candidate from the seat.
After delimitation in 2008, this will be the third Lok Sabha election in Patna Sahib. In 2014, Shatrughan Sinha, then contesting on a BJP ticket, defeated Congress candidate and Bhojpuri actor Kunal Singh with a margin of 30.13% votes.
Despite the Modi wave sweeping the country, Kunal Singh, backed by the RJD, had bagged 2.20 lakh votes. His vote tally was more than two-time JD(U) candidate Gopal Prasad Sinha, who garnered a little more than 91,000 votes. Shatrughan Sinha had then romped home with 4.85 lakh votes. The JD(U) contested the last general elections on its own.
This time, apart from Kayasthas, Ravi Shankar Prasad may be eyeing traditional BJP voters such as Bhumihars and Brahmins, and also Kurmi votes with JD(U) support.
Prasad, who is contesting his first election this time in his four-decade-long political career, is the son of Thakur Prasad, one of the co-founders of Jana Sangh.
Like Prasad, Shatrughan Sinha too is banking on Kayastha votes, along with Yadav and Muslim votes as a candidate of the RJD-led mahagathbandhan.
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