Syrian army artillery guns firing from a position in al-Habit on the southern edges of the Idlib province | AFP PHOTO / HO / SANA
On Monday, Trump told reporters at the Joint Base Andrews that portions of the video of the raid that killed Baghdadi may be released—something he said he would like to do in his initial address, for followers and “young kids” across the world who leave their countries to join ISIS, to see how he died. “He didn’t die a hero,” Trump said.
A Department of Defence report in August stated that Trump's decision to withdraw forces from Syria was accelerating the comeback of ISIS, which had between 14,000 and 18,000 combatants at the time. It stated that despite being forced underground in Iraq and Syria, ISIS maintains "an extensive worldwide sovcial media effort to recruit fighters."
In addition, hundreds of its fighters who were once-prisoners of the SDF, were released in the chaos following the Turkish invasion in northeast Syria.
But, even as ISIS faced a murky future in Syria in its final moments, its ambit was aimed outwards. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Baghdadi spent his final year preparing to give ISIS its global expansion, targeting regions like South Asia and Western and Central Africa.
The Idlib region where he was captured, was supposed to have been cleared of extremists by Turkey, as part of an agreement with Russia. However, little action has taken place on that front, even as Russia has been bombarding parts of the governorate. As the last province held by rebels in Syria, the Idlib region faces the threat of an offensive by Syrian government forces. Experts believe that Russia’s deal with Turkey to create a ‘safe-zone’ in Syria’s northeast region unofficially included a quid pro quo to leave the northwest part bordering Turkey for Syrian forces.
As questions emerge over who will replace Baghdadi as ISIS's chief, one likely figure is mentioned on the website of the US State Department’s Rewards for Justice programme, where information about terrorists is listed with the promise of a financial reward if tips lead to their capture. Amir Muhammad Sa’id Abdal-Rahman al-Mawla is described as one of ISIS’s most senior ideologues and a “potential successor” to Baghdadi. Mawla, reportedly, drove and justified the “abduction, slaughter and trafficking of the Yazidi religious minority” in northwest Iraq—crimes that the United Nations has since dubbed a genocide.
The reward for Baghdadi was $25 million, matching what was offered for Bin Laden earlier. Baghdadi’s page on the site has since been taken down.
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