High polling means vote for BJP? Know who gains from high vote percentage

Who will win the ongoing five assembly elections? What do voting patterns in different state elections since 2014 indicate?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah are at a party even in Madhya Pradesh. Union minister Uma Bharti is also seen in the photograph. (Photo: Pankaj Tiwari)

HIGHLIGHTS

• High voting percentage seems to be favouring the BJP in elections
• BJP has won 7 of 10 states which recorded increased voting percentage since May 2014
• Election results of 5 poll-bound states will be declared on December 11

In the ongoing phase of assembly elections, three of the five states have locked their choices in the electronic voting machines (EVMs). Rajasthan and Telangana will vote for their next governments on Friday, December 7. Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram have recorded in excess of 75 per cent voting percentage.

The BJP and the Congress are in direct fight in Hindi-belt states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Multi-cornered fight is expected in Mizoram and Telangana. The BJP is trying to make an electoral statement in both the states.

Who will form governments in these states? The voting pattern and results in the elections held since the Narendra Modi government took oath at the Centre in May 2014 give some indications.

Increased Voting Works For BJP

A total of 21 states excluding the current five went to polls since the Narendra Modi government was sworn in. Of these, the BJP was not a power to reckon with in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry all elected their governments in 2016.

Of the remaining 17 states electing new government since May 2014, 10 states recorded increased voting percentage. The BJP benefitted in the assembly elections in seven of these states.

Between October and December in 2014, Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir went to polls. In Maharashtra, voting percentage improved from 60 per cent in 2009 assembly election to 64 per cent in 2014 polls. The BJP emerged as the single-largest party falling 22 short of majority but replaced the Congress as the ruling party in Maharashtra after the polls.

In Haryana, voting percentage increased to 76.9 per cent in 2014 assembly polls a record for the state from 72.29 per cent in 2009 election. The BJP won a majority on its own and ousted the Congress from power in Haryana.

A 100-year-old woman at a polling booth in Chhattisgarh.

The election result in Jharkhand was little startling as the state for the first time voted for a single-party government. The voting percentage in Jharkhand improved by nearly 6.5 percentage points -- to 66.03 per cent in 2014 from 59.40 in 2009 assembly election. The BJP defeated the Congress and its allies the RJD, JD(U) and the JMM.

Jammu and Kashmir also went to polls in 2014. The election saw increase in voting percentage from 60.4 per cent in 2008 to 65.23 per cent in 2014. It ended in a hung assembly but the BJP gained in the Jammu region winning 25 seats in the state assembly. A post-poll alliance with the PDP saw the BJP sharing power in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time.

2015 Shocker For BJP

The assembly elections of 2015 showed a different trend with the increasing voting percentage. Delhi and Bihar went to polls in 2015. Both states recorded better voting percentage. In Delhi voting percentage improved from 65.86 per cent in 2013 to 67.08 per cent in February 2015. The BJP suffered a crashing defeat at the hands of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) of activist Arvind Kejriwal.

In 2015 assembly election, Bihar recorded highest voting percentage since 2000 an improvement of more than six percentage points over 2010 state polls from 52.67 per cent to 56.8 per cent. The grand alliance of the RJD, the JD(U) and the Congress prevented the BJP from coming to power. It was in power in Bihar with its ally JD(U) before the latter snapped ties in 2013 and joined hands with the RJD and the Congress.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had parted ways with the BJP in 2013 when it became evident that Narendra Modi would be party's prime ministerial candidate.

Northeast Bloom For BJP

Assam assembly election opened the doors for the BJP in the Northeast in 2016. Assam went to polls in April 2016 and saw an increase in voting percentage by nearly 10 percentage points from 75 per cent in 2011 to 84.72 per cent in 2016.

Tarun Gogoi of the Congress was the chief minister of Assam for three consecutive terms. But the increased voting percentage saw the BJP winning 86 seats in the 126-member Assam assembly.

Manipur went to polls in March 2017. The voting percentage improved from 79.19 per cent in 2012 to 84 per cent in 2017. The Congress lost power to the BJP though the party emerged was the single-largest in the assembly election.

The TRS of Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao is facing a stiff challenge from the Congress, the BJP and the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi in the assembly election.

The UP Push

Uttar Pradesh assembly election of February 2017 was a major push for the BJP. The party won 325 of 403 seats. The Samajwadi Party and the Congress had entered into an alliance with much fanfare but the BJP stormed to power in Uttar Pradesh.

Goa also saw increased voting percentage in 2017 assembly election. It was one of the exceptions like Delhi and Bihar to the rule of increased voting percentage favouring the BJP but with a twist. The Congress emerged as the single-largest party but the BJP managed to get support from smaller parties in the hung assembly.

Assembly election was held in Karnataka in May 2018. The voting percentage here increased from 71.45 per cent in 2013 to 72.13 per cent. The BJP won 104 while its ally won one. The increased voting percentage did favour the BJP but the Congress turned the tables by entering into an alliance with the JD(S) to form the government.

Going by the indications of poll campaigns, the Congress is giving a tough fight to the BJP in Rajasthan. In photographs: Congress president Rahul Gandhi with party leader Sachin Pilot (left) and Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje with BJP president Amit Shah.

What if voting percentage reduces?

A fall in voting percentage plays more guessing game than a jump in it. Having gone to the polls at the same time as Uttar Pradesh in 2017, Punjab saw a fall in voting percentage and of the SAD-BJP government. Voting percentage in Punjab fell to 76.83 per cent from 78.20 per cent in 2012 and the Congress gained in power.

But, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat offered a different picture. Voting percentage in Uttarakhand reduced 65.64 per cent in February 2017 from 67.22 per cent in 2012 but the BJP snatched power from the Congress in the state.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh and Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje: All three BJP chief ministers are facing anti-incumbency with the Congress being the prime challenger in respective states.

In Himachal Pradesh, drop in voting percentage was minor from 75 per cent in 2012 to 74 in 2017. The BJP displaced the Congress as the ruling party in Himachal Pradesh.

In Gujarat, where stakes were particularly high for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah, voting percentage slipped from 71.32 per cent in 2012 to 68.41 per cent in 2017. The BJP suffered a loss of seat 115 to 99 - but retained power.

Twist In Northeast

Three Northeast states Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland went to polls in February 2018. All three states saw a drop in voting percentage and all three saw the BJP ending up on the ruling side in the respective assemblies.

In Tripura, the voting percentage slipped from 93.57 per cent in 2013 to 91 per cent in 2018. The BJP won 44 of 60 seats, having drawn a naught five years ago. It unseated the Left Front that had been ruling in Tripura since 1998.

In Meghalaya, the Congress lost power to a coalition with the BJP in it. The voting percentage here was 84.86 per cent compared to 86.82 per cent in 2013.

Over 80 per cent polling was recorded in the Mizoram assembly election held on November 28.

In Nagaland, the voting percentage reduced to 75 per cent from 90.19 per cent in 2013. The NDA, riding on the popularity of Neiphiu Rio, came to power in Nagaland.

The constant thing about elections in the North-East was a high voting percentage favouring the BJP or its allies. This fits in the broader trend of increased or high voting percentage working for the BJP across the country barring a few exceptions like in Punjab.

Who will win ongoing elections?

Chhattisgarh saw decline in voting percentage from 77.40 in 2013 to 76.35 per cent in two-phased polls last month. This should give the Congress hope. But the BJP still expects to hold on to the state the way it did in Gujarat.

Madhya Pradesh recorded higher voting percentage 75 per cent compared to 72.69 per cent in 2013 assembly election. The BJP hopes MP follows the general trend of elections since 2014.

In Mizoram, voting percentage reduced to 80 per cent from 83.40 per cent in 2013. The BJP hopes that its major ally the Mizo National Front (MNF) of Zoramthanga would gain from the regional trend. The Congress expects Lal Thanhawla to win his third consecutive term in the chief minister’s office in Mizoram.

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